2018 Railcar Analysis "Big Data"

Everywhere you turn in the rail industry you hear about big data and how carriers and car owners use it to manage their fleets. Obviously from a model railroad perspective we dont have this same exact data, however we do have other ways to pull "big data" in regards to our own layout rosters. 

UNDERSTANDING THE LANDSCAPE

Case in point comparing the August 2017 roster to the March 2018 data is well astonishing and tells a story in itself that we will discuss in just a minute. Being a modern contemporary model railroad I do my best to recreate what I observe trackside or read about. Some of the practices have to do with railroads actually decreasing fleets or going to more versatile cars that can be a one stop shop like the venerable 60' Plate F boxcar. Nowadays it seems this one car type has become the 50' Plate C, 50' Plate F, 60' Plate F, and even the RBL... So the more of a renaissance fleet the better to flex for customer demands. As fleets age out railroads may go towards more towards consolidating fleet types as scene with the boxcar, completing going away from a fleet, leasing a fleet, or customer moving to privately owned and managed equipment. This applies to beyond railroads and can be inferred with airlines and many other types of managed fleets. Its important to have a cost effective fleet that services the customer properly, otherwise it does no one any good because real railroading is a for profit business. 


MARCH 2018 REVIEW

We are going to look at the changes made to the St. Clair Sub roster over the past seven months first at a high level then going to jump in the car owner / type level to see exactly what transpired. 

Immediate take away from the high level totals - total roster grew by 35 cars in three of four categories. How can this be if MCIS sold and acquired covered hoppers assets in this time frame, what else could be driving the large growth. Lets now look into the owner / car type information to tell us more. 

Boxcars 

 - Foreign cars down account age outs and other carriers moving towards TTX cars

 - Private ownership up account TTX picking up the share of age outs with 60' Plate F's

 - MCIS does plan to begin replacing aging 50'  Plate C cars with second hand owned 50' and 60' Plate F cars. 

- Early 2019 will see the end of the MCIS All door boxcar fleet in revenue service. 

Open Top Hoppers

 - Foreign ownership up due to coke orders originating in CWE pool cars  

 - Private ownership up significantly due to securing DTE coal contract (DETX hoppers)

Covered Hoppers

- Foreign ownership up a few cars due to new service lanes with CN and CSXT

- Home road is no change as retirement of the 4600 fleet was a wash with new 5188s 

- Private ownership up significantly due to Graystone Cement establishing a terminal at Bay City adding their own fleet of WSOX and NRLX marked 3281 cubic cars.

Flatcars

- Large increase due to wind unit train operations and further Essar steel business 

Tankcars

- Increase due to growing LPG and Dow Chemical business

TAKEAWAYS

The state of the railroad post described going after new business and leverage grow with more unit train operations. With the coal and wind cars we are growing this business which ironically is a balanced energy plan, and the new 5188s in grain service will support cycling more unit trains to export Michigan crops to market. Boxcars and how they are operated will continue evolve as the fleet gets older. Lastly we will continue to see a heavy reliance on private owned cars to fill the bill on specialized loadings like steel, cement, and chemicals. From a modelers perspective between what manufacturers are offering now and the aftermarket products from decal vendors there is no better time to capture the continued evolution of modern railroading. 

There you have it - 2018 analysis in a nutshell. Have a great rest of March. 

GM

** This post is completely fictional and does not relate to any real railroad or customer **

2016 Recap / 2017 Plan

In my last post we discussed briefly reviewing the goals I had set for 2016. Well I took the time to go back to that first post of January and collect the goals I had set and we are now going to examine each to see where I landed. After discussing 2016 recap, we will walk through my 2016 state of the railroad and turn attention to setting goals for 2017.

EMD SD40-2 #4056 glides past corn fields just west of Gerhard, Michigan.  

2016 GOALS vs. ACTUAL

Goal: Create scenery 

Actual: Completed scenery in “Farm Fields Curve” scene and refreshed “East Bay Yard” scene 

Goal: Build structures: 

Actual: Did not meet goal of building structures, however did acquire more built buildings for scenes

Goal: Quarterly Ops Sessions

Actual: January 2016, June 2016, October 2016 A, October 2016 B

Goal: Host layout in FWLOD

Actual: Hosted two sessions during DFW Interchange Ops weekend, next FWLOD should be 2017

Goal: 4 to 5 Locomotive sound installs 

Actual: 11 sound installs complete (8 contract / 3 MCIS)

** Bonus **

Actual: Partnered with Azatrax LLC. to plan, install, showcase, and operate a ABS system with 8 blocks and sixteen signal heads between East Bay City and East Staging in less than five months. 

ABS signals guarding the transition between EBAY and EDSE blocks east of Bay City.

Overall I met 4 of 5 goals for 2016 and I am very proud of the accomplishments made and assistance from family and friends along the way. 

MCIS 3816 idles in Bay Yard awaiting its next assignment

STATE OF THE RAILROAD 2016

Ops Sessions

This year we hosted four operating sessions with 18 total operators attending. Of these sessions one was part of the NMRA Lone Star Region Convention and the last two were part of the DFW Interchange weekend. Over these four sessions, 52 trains were operated with 624 total car movements. 

Railcar Fleet

Active railcar fleet stands at 190 cars (30 cars added, 6 removed for net gain of 24 cars in 2016). I do not see any big changes with the fleet in the next year as the current car mix accurately captures the overhead and local traffic that is common on the St. Clair Sub. 

Locomotive Fleet

Total fleet stands at 67 motors (63 on active roster and 4 stored). Of 67, 29 are actually modelled of which 20 are active. 

Two rebuilt SD40M-2s (former SD45-2) and one GP38-2 were returned to service this December with Soundtraxx Tsunami2 and Tsunami sound decoders. Upon activation and assignment, our mechanical team will review the proposed retirement of the nine oldest GP38-2s which lower their total number for 25 to 16. Of the oldest nine GP38-2s three are modelled with two on the dead line. 

MAC Shop Contract Work

This year Michigan Interstate’s Mt. Pleasant, Michigan MAC “Motivepower & Car” began outside contract decoder install work. This year saw work completed for three different customers culminating in eight sound decoder installs. Overall the MAC shop completed installation of eleven sound decoder systems in 2016. 

Customer Franchise

Looking at the customer base, we had three traffic additions on the St. Clair Sub this year. Starting with Michigan Sugar at Upper Huron we converted a portion of the 4000 cubic open top hoppers from coal to hauling sugar beets during the campaign August thru November converting this short haul move away from trucks. In between beet seasons the cars will find use in aggregate service with a large demand planned for 2017. Additionally two customer facilities were added this year with first being Graystone Cement at Bay City. This facility is a water to rail distribution terminal for cement products moving to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and eastern Canadian regions. Secondly Crop Production Services opened a fertilizer facility at Grays Lake to support Michigan’s fertile Thumb region. 

Our bread and butter summed up in this photo at Bay Yard

Engineering / Infrastructure

Trackwork complete in 2016 on the St. Clair Sub consisted of adding run around tracks at Grays Lake and Bay City to better support local service to customers. The largest task handled by our engineering team was the addition of an operational Automatic Block Signal System between Bay City and Port Huron. The modelled portion consists of eight detection blocks driving 16 signal heads installed between June and October in partnership with Azatrax LLC of Longmont, CO. The new system was first used operationally and operated flawlessly during the DFW Interchange session on October 29thwhich consisted of two sessions lasting 6.5 hours handling 25 trains. Be sure to check the blog to walk through the different phases of install. Operating the ABS system alongside Direct Traffic Control dispatching provides an extra layer of safety while being cost effective for Class II regional system.

Social Media

Keeping current the Michigan Interstate St. Clair Subdivision is on the worldwide web with its own blog showcasing monthly updates, layout how-to installs, and other musings in the prototype and model railroading industry. In addition we also have a YouTube Channel showcasing some of the previous operating events, signal system operation, and links to other great channels. This year we reached over 55,600 views with our highest month to date viewership in July at 4,022 views. While we do not have our own page on Facebook we do share in multiple groups the happenings around the St. Clair Sub (Model Rail Radio, Freelance Model Railroads, and Model Railroad Operations). The goal of the blog is to reach, inspire, and showcase the great opportunities within the hobby. 

Scene Development

Closing out the year, two scenes are largely completed with exception for small details. On the lower level the “East Bay” Scene (Bay Yard East Lead Switch to Helix entrance) was refreshed and completed during the ABS system install. The upper level scene completion consisted of “Corn / Bean Fields” (M-29 Overpass to Gerhard). 

Making the most of planning, the layout has been divided into twelve scenic sections. By dividing the layout into these scenes I can better plan and allocate resources and materials to make progress. Too often we as modelers get pulled to work on many scenes at once that either do not get completed in a timely manner or rack up a lot of costs. My hope is focusing on one area before moving to the next will net finished scene results. Originally I had planned to complete one upper and one lower level, but best to finish work above before moving to lower deck. 

Conductor riding point of shove from Bay Yard out of Lakes Forest Products

GOALS SET FOR 2017

Ops Sessions
One session per quarter to include hosting during 2017 Fort Worth Layout Operations Day

Railcar Fleet
Continue with fleet weathering – planned 20 cars. Acquire cars from Scale Trains and Springs Mills Depot. 

Locomotive Fleet
No locomotive acquisitions planned / Activate (2) SD60Ms, (1) GP40-2 and upgrade (2) GP40-2s

MAC Shop Work
Support MCIS planned installs and any contract work sourced

Customer Franchise
Michigan Agricultural Commodities will be begin operating unit train service from their Bay City Terminal for export at Hunter’s Bay, VA. Additionally large MDOT projects have already placed a large demand for aggregates in 2017 which will require unit train service of aggregates off the Port Belle Branch. 

Engineering / Infrastructure
Dump ballast at Grays Lake and continue installing Caboose Industries ground throws 

Social Media
Early and Late Month Update Blog Posts, Posting update links to Facebook groups. 

Scene Development

Complete scenery, trackwork, and structures in “Grays Lake” scene

Shoving platform 31 returning to Bay City on rear of L-PBBA-02 "Sugar Turn"

So here's to 2017 and what we hope it will bring the Michigan Interstate. I hope the best for everyone, your families, and your model railroading hobby!

GM

**(Photos shown were my best of the year similar to what you would see in a stockholder packet)**

Grand Trunk Western's Gentle Giant

I spent the good first half of my childhood growing up in Michigan. My favorite railroad no doubt as a kid and even now as an adult will always be the Grand Trunk Western.... in case my Michigan Interstate locomotive paint scheme didn't give it away. But now that I live in Texas one would think that sightings of original Grand Trunk equipment would be few and far between.

Graffiti tagged but FRA compliant with the reflective tape. The "Good Track Road" slogan is pretty much gone below the logo.

But there is hope! Sometime back in the mid-2000s General Motors relocated its Service Parts Operation warehouse out to Roanoke, TX north of Fort Worth. So what does the relocation have to do with Grand Trunk you ask? The answer is a steady stream of blue GTW 86' 4 and 8 door boxcars delivered daily by the UP local switcher to the GM warehouse. Seeing these boxcars is nothing new as they have been setout and picked up countless times by a UP manifest freight that I assume comes out of Muskogee, OK or Dennison, TX. enroute to Fort Worth. What I did realized though is these particular boxcars only originate from one location when hauling service part loads outbound to other GM SPO facilities like this one in Roanoke and others that I know of in Sparks, NV and Cucamonga, CA. The origin is none other than GM's Swartz Creek SPO Facility just to the west of Flint.

Even wanting to appreciate the ubiquitous blue GTW autopart boxcar I began to notice that even though they are standard blue and have the GTW logo on the side everyone has become unique in its own way especially after traveling the North American network these many years with tired battle hardened look about them. With parent CN purchasing the Illinois Central it is now not uncommon to see IC, ICG, and CN 86' auto part boxcars as well but only the Grand Trunk ones have the 8 doors. As tired as some of these cars look I have seen a few parent CN repaints with various reporting marks of CNA, GTW, and IC looking classy in the standard CN boxcar brown or on occasion a darker GTW blue adorned with the www.cn.ca web address.

What logo? GTW305900

Parent company CN  - alot of the repaints that I have seen are coming in this brown but look much more minimalist.

So what does this post then signify you ask? Well after being away from Michigan for many years, I now have the ability to take a short drive and catch a glimpse of what Michigan railroads were synonymous for and continue to support; the Automotive Industry. These boxcars invoke memories of going downriver and watching GP38-2's shove cars over the hump at GTW's Flat Rock Yard, Henry Ford's old electrification concrete towers in Taylor, or driving through Flint seeing an endless sea of these gentle giants at Torrey Yard. These memories I have found help inspire me even more to continue modelling proto-freelance Michigan in my own way.


GM